Operation Enduring Soldier
Inspiration: This post on Tpmcafe about Bush's numbers slipping on Iraq.
Between 9/11, lingering optimism after the rapid success in Afghanistan, a decade of steady demonization of Saddam, toadies twisting the Intel community until it squeezed out some dubious fig-leaves etc. it shouldn't be surprising the public enthusiastically supported Iraq and maintained that support through the very early stages. I think what's happening is the accumulated failure on almost all fronts by the Admin. in Iraq (and PR gaffes like Gitmo) is starting to outweigh the President's platitudes and the natural idealism of the American people. Doing something correctly is one thing, a real leader is someone who decides on the right thing to do.
I'm not an expert on Iraq, but it's clear that our troops can't keep the security situation under control there, and barring some major sea change in Sunni popular opinion against the insurgents or an influx of competent allied troops, won't be stabilizing it very soon. What does that suggest for policy going forward then? Well, we can stay and train more Iraqi army units, which will probably be strong enough to control the area in a year or five. The price would be a couple thousand more U.S. dead, many more billions of dollars, continued short shrift of the real threats elsewhere, more pumping the bellows of Muslim hatred towards the U.S.
Or we could cut and run, strategically withdraw, whatever. We save blood and treasure, our standing might or might not improve with Arab countries, and the jihadists get to declare victory over the invader. Likely a civil war, I don't know who would win, but I'd like to think the Shiites wouldn't lay down and let the Sunni lord it over them again. "Hey, we've got guns now". After the fighting you're either going to get an "American blessed" Islamic Republic or another Sunni junta, pick your poison. Mr. Kristol and Co. tried to hasten along with military force a cultural shift that happened in the West centuries ago, it's still unclear whether it catches hold. I'm skeptical, but I hope it does. My sad prediction is that the folks who are pressing for withdrawal won't get one by next year (unless pressure on military manpower becomes great enough to threaten a draft) and that the price of a stable Iraq will continue to be borne on the backs of American soldiers for many years. I would have liked to see some attempt at effective containment and gradual reform of these states, not this overestimation of the ability of force to solve complex problems and the continuous bad judgements of this civilian leadership. New Meme: Competence Matters.
